As ridiculously concerning as Trump’s 51st State bullshit rhetoric is, I doubt Trump and MAGAmerica will invade Canada until after America’s next Civil War.

Hear me (and Civil War/Historical expert), Professor Barbara F Walter, out.

In 2021, political scientist Barbara F. Walter, a leading expert on civil wars and a former member of the CIA’s Political Instability Task Force, delivered a chilling warning: The United States is exhibiting the same signs of instability that have preceded violent internal conflicts in other nations.

Her research, outlined in her book How Civil Wars Start and her TED Talk, uses decades of empirical data to show how modern civil wars begin—not with a single cataclysmic event but with a slow erosion of democratic norms, rising political factionalism, and the desperate actions of a ruling minority trying to hold onto power. Her most recent TED talk, FASCINATING, outlines a grim picture for America because wealthy white Christians aren’t the only ones with guns in America.

Watch it:

Today, America is showing nearly all of the warning signs of an impending civil conflict, driven by the ideological forces of MAGA extremism, Christian nationalism, and white patriarchal panic. The country is at a crossroads, and Walter’s research suggests the next decade could determine whether the US continues as a functioning democracy—or descends into chaos.

The Recipe for Civil War: There’s a formula that starts with “Out Group Resentment.”

(AKA, rich religious racist white guys are pissed that POC outnumber them) 

Walter’s research into civil wars worldwide reveals a predictable pattern that nations follow before conflict erupts. The key factors are:

1. The Shift to Anocracy

   • Walter classifies thUSS. as an Anocracy, a political system that is neither fully democratic nor fully autocratic.
   • Countries in this unstable middle ground are far more prone to civil conflict than strong democracies or outright dictatorships.
   • In 2021, thUSS. was formally downgraded from a “full democracy” to an anocracy for the first time in its history, based on democratic backsliding, attacks on election integrity, and rising political violence.

2. Losing Power Fuels Radicalization

   • Most civil wars are not started by the oppressed but by a once-powerful group that sees its dominance slipping away (Wealthy White Christian Conservative Men)
   • ThUSS. is undergoing a massive demographic shift: for the first time in history, white Americans are no longer the majority. By 2045, the majority of the country will be non-white, and what better way to protect White rich Christian Nationalists than starting your Presidency by getting rid of DEI while blaming plane crashes on black people?
   • This demographic shift has fueled a reactionary movement among white Christian conservatives who see their cultural, political, and economic supremacy fading. Thus, MAGA controls every level of government based on 20% of the vote.

3. The Rise of Factionalism

   • One of Walter’s strongest predictors of civil war is the rise of ethnic or religious factionalism—where one group begins seeing politics as an existential struggle.
   • The Republican Party, now dominated by MAGA extremism and Christian nationalism, increasingly views itself as the last line of defense against a “foreign” America where people of color, women, and LGBTQ+ individuals hold power.
   • This is not just political polarization but a fundamental breakdown of shared national identity, a classic precursor to civil war.

      

4. Erosion of Democratic Norms

   • Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results and the violent January 6th insurrection were defining moments of democratic erosion.
   • Since then, Republican leaders have doubled down on election denialism, openly rejecting democratic outcomes unless they favor their side.
   • Over 70% of Republicans still falsely believe that Trump won in 2020, demonstrating that a major political party has abandoned reality in favor of authoritarianism.

MAGA, Christian Nationalism, and the Last Gasp of White Patriarchy

Walter’s research shows that civil wars often begin when a once-dominant group—facing demographic and political decline—uses violence to maintain control.

In America, this group is white, Christian, patriarchal conservatives who have historically held unchecked power. But as the country becomes more racially diverse, more secular, and more gender-equal, their grip is slipping.

The MAGA movement, driven by Christian nationalism and white grievance, is the most visible manifestation of this last-ditch effort to prevent a multicultural, progressive future. We see this playing out in:

• Attacks on Voting Rights: Laws designed to suppress the Black, Latino, and young vote in Republican-led states.
• The End of Roe v. Wade: A desperate attempt to reassert patriarchal control over women’s bodies and choices.
• Book Bans and Education Censorship: A rejection of history that acknowledges America’s racial injustices.
• Political Violence: From January 6th to attacks on LGBTQ+ communities, the normalization of violence as a political tool is escalating.

These are not isolated incidents—they are textbook warning signs of a movement willing to undermine democracy rather than lose power. This is EXACTLY where America is as Elon rips through government agencies, consolidating control and power of every branch and agency of what used to be the United States of America.

What Comes Next? Civil War or a Democratic Reset?

Barbara Walter’s research suggests that once a nation enters the anocracy zone, there are only two paths forward:

1. A Rapid Recommitment to Democracy

   • Strengthen institutions, prosecute political violence, and create guardrails to prevent authoritarian backsliding.
   • The Biden administration has attempted this, but Republican-controlled states continue pushing anti-democratic laws at the local level.

2. Descent into Conflict

   • If democratic backsliding continues, America could see an increase in political violence, state secession movements, and outright civil war.
   • The rise of right-wing militias, “Boogaloo” civil war rhetoric, and stochastic terrorism suggests that some factions are already preparing for violence.

Experts say it’s not a matter of “If” but “When.”

Walter’s findings are clear: America is in uncharted but dangerous territory. The country has already moved from a stable democracy to an anocracy, and the forces driving civil wars around the world—ethnic factionalism, a desperate ruling minority, and democratic erosion—are all present.

The next few years will be critical. Either America recommits to multiracial democracy, or it follows the path of other nations that let factionalism tear them apart. Unfortunately, America has a “Tear it Apart President, so most experts are telling Americans to stock up on canned goods, water, and antibiotics. 

If the rich history of global civil war is any guide, we are closer to the brink than most Americans realize.