Bet on the Blue Jays: Expect starting pitching to keep it tight vs. Yankees

Nick Reid Sep 9, 2021

Could the Blue Jays be any hotter than they are now? I hope so. The Jays have won seven straight, nine of their last ten, and are rolling at the right time. Taking the first three against the New York Yankees has been HUGE for their chances of making the postseason, but I don’t just want a series win in the Bronx. I want a sweep.

Thankfully, the Blue Jays have a pretty good chance of doing that with José Berrios on the mound tonight at Yankee Stadium. Berrios has had some up-and-downs since arriving to the Jays at the deadline but I think he’ll be locked in in a game that has the chance of flipping the Wild Card standings on its head. The Jays are 1.5 games behind the Yankees for that second spot, so a win tonight would be HUGE before the boys head home to face the Baltimore Orioles. The first game of the NFL season will be on, but it’s gonna have to reside on my smaller TV in favour of tonight’s Jays game.

I realize I haven’t done a Bet On The Blue Jays article in a while. The last two BOTB bets I’ve done were video plays on Twitter, with the most recent being an EASY plus-money cash on Vladdy Jr. over 1.5 total bases. I like the Jays tonight from a betting perspective, especially considering the sportsbooks have them as slight underdogs at even money. I think this is mostly because bookies and bettors alike think the Yankees simply can’t get swept. But can they? I’m not saying this will be an easy task for the Blue Jays, but they’re on fire and should be eager to leave the Bronx having taken all four games from the Yanks.

All lines will be available via Bet365, a sportsbook that is very legal in Canada. Odds will be measured in American-style odds, which is the most common gambling metric used in this part of the world, as well as decimal-style odds because that’s what I like using. If you’re interested in learning about American odds, or looking to convert American/Decimal/Fraction gambling odds from one to the other, then you’re welcome. Both are good to know when first getting into sports gambling.

*And make sure to play responsibly. You shouldn’t try to make a living off of a regular season baseball game in September. This is for fun.

September 9, 7:05 PM: Toronto Blue Jays (+100 / 2.00) @ New York Yankees (-120 / 1.83)

Probable Pitchers: José Berrios, RHP (TOR) vs Néstor Cortes Jr., LHP (NYY)

First 5 innings under 5 runs (-120/1.83)

While Yankee Stadium seems like a little league park at times, I really like this play. We have a pretty solid pitching matchup on our hands with Berrios going up against Néstor Cortes Jr. You probably haven’t heard of him, but Cortes Jr. is a real-life version of Super Mario if he knew how to pitch. The guy has a great ‘stache, which has undoubtedly contributed to his success this year as he sports a 2.67 ERA in 17 appearances.

On the other side, we’ve got Berrios who has had some ups-and-downs since the Jays snagged him at the deadline. With that being said, I am confident that he pulls through for the Blue Jays tonight. He’s been great in his last two starts, going seven scoreless with 11 K’s in Detroit followed by another quality start and win at home against the Athletics. In his last start, he allowed three earned runs, but only one of them was within the first five innings which is all that matters for this bet. I think Berrios realizes the importance of this game and comes out dealing the way we know he can.

The F5 under has hit or pushed in five of Berrios’ seven starts as a Blue Jay. On the other side, it’s hit in 7/9 for Cortes Jr. Factor in that the Yankees have been struggling at the dish lately and I think this is a great bet. The starting pitching will keep this one tight to open the game, and having the comfort of knowing the play pushes if exactly five runs are scored makes this a no-brainer. Hammer this one (responsibly).

 

Bonus Play: Marcus Stroman o17.5 outs (-120 / 1.83)

I’m gonna keep this one short and sweet. Stroshow has cashed this in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Mets used four or more relievers in each of the last four days, so he’s gonna have a long leash. And to top it off, the Marlins suck against right-handed pitching, especially at home, and their lineup is missing four of their starters. I have no reason to believe that Stroman won’t pitch at least six innings, he’s been one of the most reliable workhorses in the Majors this season. This is my favourite play of today’s entire MLB slate and I am confident that the former Blue Jay will pull through for us on this one. Best of luck!

Nick Reid

Blue Jays Contributor for DeanBlundell.com. Sport Management student at Brock University. Have seen a game at all 30 Major League ballparks. Would rather be eating poutine at the Rogers Centre.

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