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Bet on the Blue Jays: Robbie Ray, bats roll the Mariners on the run line

Nick Reid Jun 29, 2021

For over a month I’ve been clamoring for the Blue Jays to address their bullpen. Look at this offense. It’s elite. But what good is an offense if the late-game pitching can’t hold a lead? Finally, Ross Atkins has listened, surely to me specifically, as the Jays made a trade to acquire reliever Adam Cimber from the Miami Marlins, along with veteran outfielder Corey Dickerson in exchange for Joe Panik and Double-A righty Andrew McInvale.

You might not have ever heard of Cimber, but let me tell you why there’s reason to believe it’s a great pickup by the Jays. First off, they NEED relief pitchers. Preferably good ones. And Cimber will come to Buffalo with a 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, which are numbers that are just about foreign to this Blue Jays bullpen. On top of that, I like Cimber because he comes at hitters from a submarine arm slot that induces a TON of groundballs and makes it super hard to hit his pitches in the air. Cimber’s got one of the best GB% in the league and has given up ZERO home runs in 34.1 innings pitched this season. He’s not a flamethrower who generates a lot of strikeouts, but all this bullpen needs to do is get batters out and Cimber is good at doing that in a way that is pretty stress-free. I can see him being a solid 7th inning guy who might pitch later depending on matchups, and Cimber/Romano/Merryweather will be the best trio we’ve had all year once the latter returns from the IL.

And at this point with how bad the bullpen’s been, the front office needs to try anything to see if improvements can be made. I’ve said that when it comes to address the relief pitching the front office should just keep throwing things against a wall and see what sticks, and I think Cimber has enough upside that he could find himself glued to that wall like he’s covered in Spider Tack. But not actually.

This edition of Bet on the Blue Jays looks at the series opener as the Seattle Mariners come to town for three games at Sahlen Field. The Mariners are a young, hard-nosed team that have exceeded expectations so far with a record above .500, but the sportsbooks don’t reflect that in this game as they’re huge underdogs. But that’s also because the Blue Jays have been hotter than a skillet having won 7 of their last 8 and putting up nearly eight runs/game in their long weekend series against the Baltimore Orioles. I like the Jays to continue streaking in front of these awesome Buffalo crowds, and while taking them on the moneyline doesn’t have any value I’ve found two other plays for us that do.

All lines will be available via Bet365, a sportsbook that is very legal in Canada. Odds will be measured in American-style odds, which is the most common gambling metric used in this part of the world, as well as decimal-style odds because that’s what I like using. If you’re interested in learning about American odds, or looking to convert American/Decimal/Fraction gambling odds from one to the other, then you’re welcome. Both are good to know when first getting into sports gambling.

*And play responsibly. You shouldn’t try to make a living off of a midweek regular season baseball game in June. This is for fun.

June 29, 7:07 PM: Toronto Blue Jays (-233 / 1.43) vs Seattle Mariners (+190 / 2.90)

Probable Pitchers: Robbie Ray, LHP (TOR) vs Chris Flexen, RHP (SEA)

first Team to score : Blue Jays (-132 / 1.76)

In Buffalo, the Blue Jays have been able to score early and often which is why I’m going with them as the first team to score in this one. Over their last five games, the Jays have averaged 4 runs scored through 3 innings, and I like them to score early against right-handed journeyman Chris Flexen. The opponent has scored first in his last three road starts. The Jays have been doing a great job manufacturing runs their first time through the order and I like them to strike first here.

We’re actually able to get this play at some nice odds solely because that the Jays are at home. Obviously this means the M’s will have the first crack at getting on the board but I trust Robbie Ray to keep their bats in check early on. The Jays have scored first in four of his last five starts, showing that they’ve done a good job at getting him early leads while he’s been solid especially early on in his outings. Between the Blue Jays being hot at the plate early in games along with their advantage on the mound I’m confident in this one.

Blue Jays -1.5 (-125 / 1.80)

One of the big reasons why the Jays are heavy favourites in this one is because they have one of the most potent offenses in the league going up against a team who’s pitching doesn’t really scare anyone. I’m a big fan of Flexen from when I’d watch him pitch in the Korean Baseball Organization in May/June of 2020 when there was no MLB, but he’s nothing special in this league. Flexen has pitched much better at home than the road as you can tell by his 7.27 ERA across five starts when the M’s were the visiting team. Meanwhile Ray has been great at delivering quality starts for the Blue Jays including the last time he pitched at Sahlen Field on June 1st when he went six innings allowing just one run, two walks, and nine punchies.

I think the Jays take an early lead here and keep it the rest of the way which is why I’m betting them on the run line -1.5. I think the Jays’ offense is more than capable of putting enough runs to support Ray that they should win this by more than a run. Let’s just hope the bullpen doesn’t make things too interesting.

Nick Reid

Blue Jays Contributor for DeanBlundell.com. Sport Management student at Brock University. Have seen a game at all 30 Major League ballparks. Would rather be eating poutine at the Rogers Centre.

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