Tonight’s game is a big one for the Toronto Blue Jays as a win would put them in first place in the American League East. After last night’s 8-0 spanking of the current division-leading Boston Red Sox, the Jays sit just a half-game back and show no signs of slowing down. They’ve won six of their last seven and have truly looked like one of the better teams in baseball. You know the Blue Jays are hotter than a pair of sweatpants full of buffalo sauce when big J baseball journalists are tweeting about them.

We’ve won 16 of our last 23 games!

Goodnight, #BlueJays fans 💙 pic.twitter.com/ErWZnCHsAB

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 19, 2021

The Blue Jays have been on a tear as of late, and so have my picks. Last time out I went 2-1, with Steven Matz recording nine punchies to clear his strikeout prop with ease while a pitching duel allowed the game to go well below the under. I got a little nervous when the Phillies scored a few runs late, but unders always come a bit sweaty which is why I usually don’t like betting them. I missed the Teoscar total bases prop as the Jays’ bats were quiet in their lone loss last week, but hitter props aren’t easy in the first place. Let’s see if I can go for the sweep in this week’s edition of Bet on the Blue Jays.

All lines will be available via Bet365, a sportsbook that is very legal in Canada. Odds will be measured in American-style odds, which is the most common gambling metric used in this part of the world, as well as decimal-style odds because that’s what I like using. For some reason, the U.S. has its own system for every type of measurement, which definitely isn’t narcissistic in any way whatsoever. If you’re interested in learning about American odds, or looking to convert American/Decimal/Fraction gambling odds from one to the other, then you’re welcome. Both are good to know when first getting into sports gambling.

*And please make sure to play responsibly. This is just for fun. You shouldn’t try to make a living off of a mid-week regular season baseball game in May. That would be foolish.

May 19: Toronto Blue Jays (-147 / 1.68) vs Boston Red Sox (+125 / 2.25)

Probable Pitchers: Ross Stripling, RHP (TOR) vs Garrett Richards, RHP (BOS)

first 3 innings over 2.5 Runs (-141 / 1.71)

It’s rare that I look at F3 lines, but this particular matchup meets the criteria for the occasion. Both of the listed pitchers, Ross Stripling and Garrett Richards, are back-end starters that don’t give me much confidence against two of the five best run-producing clubs in baseball. Once I saw the matchup I had my mind on the over, and while I usually resort to taking F5s if not full game lines this F3 o2.5 play was too good to not take.

Top of the order doing damage 😤 pic.twitter.com/1ZdL2OV4rJ

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 19, 2021

The reason why I’m going with the F3 is that both Stripling and Richards have been especially bad at the beginning of their outings this season. Boston’s 32-year old right-hander has been one of the worst pitchers in the opening frame, having allowed seven earned runs across eight 1st innings. In innings 1-3, Richards has a 5.87 ERA while Stripling has a 6.00 ERA. By those stats, both starters allow on average two runs each in the first three innings, which is more than enough to cash this play. The Blue Jays have been good at scoring early during their hot streak, including eight runs in their first 3 innings in Sunday’s game against poor Chase Anderson, and Boston is gonna I like two league-leading offenses to pounce on some uninspiring pitchers who get themselves in trouble early in games.

Blue Jays Team Total over 4.5 Runs (-132 / 1.76)

Toronto’s potent offense has been recognized by the sportsbooks, which is why they have a high team total at 4.5 which is relatively juiced up at -132/1.76. I wish the odds were better on this play, but given how well the Jays have been swinging the bat lately I’m gonna ride this offense to produce once again. They went off against Eduardo Rodriguez last night, who is the de facto ace of the Red Sox rotation, pounding him for 11 hits and five earned runs and didn’t stop there as they scored three more runs after he was taken out of the game. The Blue Jays finished with a season-high 18 hits yesterday, and I gotta think there’s still some gas in the tank.

Our SEVENTEENTH hit of the night!

💣 @RGrich15 💣 pic.twitter.com/yyE3EFMzc7

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 19, 2021

I think the Jays should have success against a very hittable starting pitcher and middling bullpen, and especially given the stakes of this game. The Blue Jays would have the sole lead of the East if they beat the Red Sox tonight, and I think the kids know how important this game is when it comes to showing the league they’re a real threat. The bats have been feasting lately and I don’t see it stopping tonight. Gimme that team total over 4.5 at whatever odds you have ’em at.