Our story begins with a reference to American politics. You might curse the darkness, but believe me, the comparison will make clear the central thesis of this article.

You might recall the previous round of (two) Democratic Party debates from July 30 and 31 in Detroit. Many people felt that the winners of the second debate were not even involved in it.

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders performed well in the first debate. In the second debate, none of the candidates on stage — especially not their foremost competitors — made an especially convincing rebuttal to their proposals for Medicare for All or other progressive policies.

Warren and Sanders won the second debate even though they weren’t there.

This is the clean parallel to the world of women’s tennis.

Very simply, Bianca Andreescu won in Cincinnati even though she wasn’t there.

Andreescu won the “first debate” of the summer in Toronto at the Rogers Cup. She then stayed away from Cincinnati in order to rest her body. She had to, given what happened in Miami after her Indian Wells title.

What she saw in Cincinnati (if she was watching any tennis on television) had to give her a lot of hope and optimism for the coming U.S. Open.

At just 19 years old, @Bandreescu_ shows a level of maturity well beyond her years. This is how women should treat each other. Her empathy and support for Serena were admirable. Competitors and women supporting women! #RC19 https://t.co/b9v7TG1NjB

— Billie Jean King (@BillieJeanKing) August 12, 2019

I will give you an assessment of Andreescu’s U.S. Open chances after the women’s draw is revealed later this week. I firmly believe in withholding predictions for tournaments until after the draws are announced.

Yet, it is very hard to deny the notion that Andreescu’s U.S. Open chances look better than ever, given the flow of events in Cincinnati.

First, the two women who met in last year’s U.S. Open final, Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams, both enter New York with health questions. Osaka had to retire from her Cincinnati quarterfinal against Sofia Kenin, while Serena’s back problems (suffered against Andreescu in the Toronto final) did not improve enough for her to feel comfortable playing in Cincy. Those are huge developments.

Then consider the players who made the Cincinnati final: Madison Keys had struggled profoundly for most of the year. She was utterly lost at Wimbledon and did not do much in Toronto. Her Cincinnati championship came out of nowhere, much like Elina Svitolina’s run to the Wimbledon semifinals and Danielle Collins’ Australian Open semifinal performance earlier this year.

Your 2019 Women's Singles Champion, @Madison_Keys! 🏆👏#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/DsvRu8WrMC

— Cincinnati Open (@CincyTennis) August 18, 2019

The title Keys won was fully deserved and richly earned. Keys beat Simona Halep, Sofia Kenin, and then Kuznetsova over the weekend to claim the title. She played well. She played with toughness and resilience. She handled negative scoreboard situations with poise and composure, the true turnaround which enabled her to capture this WTA Premier 5 trophy.

Nothing about Keys’ title was cheap or second-rate. I wouldn’t say — or suggest — as much about her win or any WTA player’s championship at an important tournament.

Yet, while noting how deserved this victory was for Madison Keys, it remains that the outcomes of important WTA tournaments this year (the four majors, the Premier Mandatory tournaments, and the Premier 5s such as Toronto and Cincinnati) look like they were spat out of a random outcome generator.

It was Andreescu and Kerber in the Indian Wells final, then Ashleigh Barty and Karolina Pliskova in the Miami final.

Jo Konta’s Rome final was completely unexpected, as was Marketa Vondrousova’s Roland Garros final. Simona Halep was supposed to win Roland Garros this year, but she won Wimbledon instead. Barty was supposed to win Wimbledon, but won Roland Garros instead.

Now we have Keys defeating the 34-year-old Kuznetsova for a Premier 5 championship.

Tournaments have very little carryover — what happens one week usually doesn’t carry over to the next. Women’s tennis has been as fluid and unpredictable as it has ever been in the Open Era.

Is *healthy* Bianca Andreescu virtually the best hardcourt player in the world?#RogersCup

— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) August 9, 2019

The statistic you will hear a lot over the next three weeks is this: 12 different WTA players have made a major semifinal this year. Given that three major tournaments have been played, that means the 12 semifinal berths allotted have all been filled by different players. Not one woman has made more than one major semifinal entering the U.S. Open.

Bianca Andreescu can step into this context of instability and take charge at the U.S. Open.

This isn’t a world in which Serena can automatically be expected to play in the semifinals or final. Osaka, an elite hardcourt player, might not be healthy enough. Karolina Pliskova, whom many will pick as a main contender for the title in New York, is good at making quarterfinals but hasn’t returned to a major final since her only appearance three years ago at the U.S. Open.

There is no sure thing, no safe bet, at this tournament. That’s the perfect environment for a 19-year-old who has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Bianca Andreescu — not just Madison Keys — won Cincinnati. Yes, even though she wasn’t there.

Now we will see if she wins a favorable draw.