I will have more on the full week that was in college football in a separate post. In this article, I want to tackle the biggest two-way game of the first week of the 2019 college football season: Oregon-Auburn.

This was the only game between two top-25 teams in Week 1. Most other ranked teams played what we Americans call “cupcake” games against smaller schools. These are easy opponents. The smaller school gets a large check from the elite school, which is essentially payment in exchange for giving the elite school a victory and a chance to make the four-team College Football Playoff.

Occasionally, top teams from different conferences play each other in Week 1: partly to test themselves, partly to make some TV money from ESPN, and partly to get a high-value win which looks good on the resume at the end of the regular season.

These are high-stakes affairs: The winner gains something, but the loser gets crushed. Losers of these games basically have to run the table to have any chance of making the playoff and staying in the national title race. Losers of these games — if they don’t subsequently win their conference championship — probably won’t make the prestigious “New Year’s Six” bowls which have bigger payouts to schools, considerable TV visibility, and elite opposition.

Oregon and Auburn both needed this game very badly. Auburn, of the Southeastern Conference, needed this game because it has such a nasty schedule this year: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida.

Auburn might lose a few times this season, but if Auburn goes 9-3 against this schedule, it could still get a New Year’s Six bowl if things break right for the Tigers. A loss to Oregon would have almost certainly nuked Auburn’s NY6 plans.

Oregon needed this game to have any real chance at the national title. The Ducks have to play Pac-12 contenders Washington and Stanford on the road. The Ducks probably can’t expect to win all their remaining games. If they lose just one more game this season, they could still be a New Year’s Six bowl team, but they won’t play for the national title.

If Oregon loses two more games, it won’t get a New Year’s Six bowl.

This was a terrible loss, and this is how it happened:

As called on Russian TV: pic.twitter.com/xaIcvM2MqT

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) September 1, 2019

That was Auburn’s go-ahead touchdown with nine seconds left, but a lot of other events preceded that decisive play. Oregon spent a lot of the night outplaying Auburn… and then squandering its advantage.

The Ducks dropped a touchdown pass. They missed a very short field goal. They fumbled in the Auburn red zone. They had a 21-6 lead and then got complacent on offense. They had 4th and 1 late in the game and did not try to disguise their formation to deceive the Auburn defense. They got stuffed.

This wasn’t the 4th and 1 play, but Oregon did get hit hard before getting to the first-down marker:

GAHHHHHH pic.twitter.com/8ChoHo6EuV

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) September 1, 2019

The consequences of this loss for Oregon have already been made plain, but the other big note to emphasize is how badly this hurts the Pac-12 Conference.

Oregon was one of three main contenders for the College Football Playoff from the Pac-12, the other two being Washington (the main competitor with Oregon for the Pac-12 North Division title) and South Division favorite Utah.

For the Pac-12 champion to have a realistic hope of making the College Football Playoff, it can’t lose more than one game. Since Oregon has lost, this leaves Washington and Utah as the other two realistic options.

Guess what: Utah and Washington play each other this season (they don’t always play each other since they are in opposite divisions in the Pac-12).

Washington and Oregon, being in the same division, play each other.

See where this is going?

Russian TV announcers on the Oregon punter bodyslam: "He wanted to show that he is a factor that is not afraid to block but he overdone it." (other commentator) "Yes. Yes that is superfluous." pic.twitter.com/2hoJqbsDFZ

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) September 1, 2019

The chances of one Pac-12 team going unbeaten (13-0) are already microscopic. As said above, the champion of the conference has to have no more than one loss to be eligible for the playoff.

The winner of the Utah-Washington game is best positioned to be that team, but the winner might have to face the loser in a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 6.

Oregon’s loss removes a cushion from the Pac-12. Oregon needed to be unbeaten heading into its game versus Washington later this season, so that if the three teams beat each other up, no one would have more than one loss, giving the Pac-12 two potential playoff candidates.

Now, any extra loss is fatal to Oregon… and if the Ducks defeat Washington, that means Washington will also be in deep trouble as far as the playoff is concerned.

Key point on the #Pac12 big pic: noncon P5 wins are important for CFP resumes. Oregon will have an L, and neither UW or Utah play a P5 out of conference

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) September 1, 2019

Let’s say Oregon beats Washington. Washington beats Utah. Oregon wins the Pac-12 North, and then defeats Utah (the South Division champion). Based on those events alone, every Pac-12 contender will have at least one loss, and Utah would have two. Oregon would be the Pac-12 champion.

Oregon would have to win each of its next 12 games to finish with a 12-1 record and have a realistic shot at the playoff.

I would put good money AGAINST that scenario.

The Pac-12 — not just Oregon — suffered a gut punch in Week 1 against Auburn.