Trump’s False Fentanyl Accusations Against Canada Are Fucking Ridiculous

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has recently claimed that Canada is responsible for “hundreds of thousands” of American deaths by allowing fentanyl to flood into the U.S. Trump alleged that Canada (and Mexico) let “millions and millions” of people and drugs into the U.S., saying “they’ve killed 300,000 people last year… by fentanyl”. These figures are wildly exaggerated. In reality, 72,000-73,000 Americans died from synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl) in 2023, according to CDC data. That toll is devastating, but it’s nowhere near “hundreds of thousands,” and certainly not “tens of millions” as a Trump spokesperson even claimed. Trump’s numbers have no basis in fact.

Moreover, Canada plays a minimal role in U.S. fentanyl trafficking. Law enforcement and public health experts overwhelmingly agree that most illicit fentanyl in the U.S. is produced in Mexico (using Chinese precursor chemicals) and smuggled across the U.S.–Mexico border. By contrast, Trump’s own administration data show only a tiny fraction of fentanyl enters from Canada. In fiscal year 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized about 21,100 pounds of fentanyl at the southern border, versus just 43 pounds at the northern border with Canada. That’s around 0.2% of the fentanyl seizures at U.S. borders coming from the Canadian side. In fact, for at least the past three years, fentanyl coming via Canada has been less than 1% of all fentanyl seized nationwide. An independent Brookings Institution expert put it bluntly: “There is no indication at all that any significant amount of fentanyl is coming to the United States from Canada.”

Canadian officials back this up. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted that Canada contributes “less than 1%” of the U.S. fentanyl supply. In the last fiscal year, U.S. agents seized 19.5 kg of fentanyl at the Canadian border, compared to 9,570 kg at the Mexican border – a 500-fold difference. Canadian police have been cracking down on domestic fentanyl labs (which grew during COVID), but those drugs are largely consumed domestically. “There’s nothing to suggest that those products have gone south of the border,” said Superintendent Marc Cochlin of Alberta’s anti-trafficking unit. In short, Trump’s portrayal of Canada as a major fentanyl source is false. Canada is not “killing” hundreds of thousands of Americans; the vast majority of U.S. fentanyl flows and overdose deaths have nothing to do with Canada.

Contraband in the Other Direction: U.S. Guns and Drugs Smuggled North

Ironically, while Trump fixes blame on Canada for America’s drug woes, Canadian authorities are more worried about smuggling flowing the opposite direction. Illegal firearms AND drugs from the U.S. are flooding into Canada (and Mexico), feeding gun crime. Canadian police report that the vast majority of crime guns seized in cities like Toronto originate in the United States, smuggled across the border. In Ontario, criminal intelligence data shows roughly 70–80% of traced crime guns come from U.S. sources. Toronto’s police have said an overwhelming share of handguns used in crimes – on the order of 85–90% – are trafficked from the U.S..

Canadian law enforcement views U.S. gun smuggling as a serious threat to public safety. In early 2024, a joint operation by the Ontario Provincial Police and U.S. Homeland Security Investigations seized 274 illegal firearms destined for Canada – the largest such bust in Ontario’s history. Notably, 168 of those guns were stopped in the U.S. before they could cross into Canada. This underscores that American supply is driving Canada’s gun violence problem. The availability of firearms in the U.S. – including many weapons banned in Canada – means Canadian gangs and criminals often rely on cross-border traffickers. Canadian authorities have tightened border checks and partnered with U.S. agencies to stem the flow, even establishing a new bilateral task force to dismantle gun smuggling networks. As one Niagara region police chief put it, “90 percent of crime guns in [Ontario]… are from the United States,” and those smuggled weapons are contributing to violence across the province. In addition to guns, some drugs and precursor chemicals move northbound as well. (For example, Canada has intercepted illicit fentanyl shipments mailed from the U.S. and China).

But guns are the clearest case of Canada “importing” crime from the U.S. rather than the other way around. This reality sharply contrasts with Trump’s narrative. Canadian Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino (and his predecessors) have repeatedly noted that cracking down on U.S.-sourced illegal firearms is critical for Canada’s security, implicitly reminding that the flow of contraband is largely south-to-north, not north-to-south.

Tariffs and False Narratives: Fentanyl as Trump’s Economic Weapon

Trump’s exaggerated fentanyl accusations did not occur in a vacuum – they came as he launched an unprecedented trade offensive against Canada. In early 2025, Trump imposed sweeping 25% tariffs on nearly all Canadian exports (with 10% on energy) under the pretext of a “national emergency” over fentanyl and illegal migration. This move effectively weaponized the opioid crisis as leverage in trade. Trump and his advisers explicitly linked the tariffs to Canada’s supposed failure to stop drugs: “tariffs that are designed to save American lives,” as trade adviser Peter Navarro put it. Navarro went so far as to claim “Mexican cartels have taken over Canada”, alleging cartels use Canada as a base to export fake pills into the U.S. (He described Canadian buildings full of pill presses and counterfeit oxycodone pills “you can’t tell the difference” from the real thing.) This bizarre assertion has been roundly discredited.

There is no evidence that Mexican cartels have “taken over” Canada – Canadian law enforcement and intelligence agencies have not reported anything of the sort. While some Mexican cartel operatives have been detected in Canada, experts say Canada’s role in the fentanyl trade is mostly limited to small-scale domestic labs and distribution rings, not cartel-controlled pipelines into the U.S..

Navarro’s rhetoric was an attempt to justify punitive tariffs with a sensational “drug war” narrative. (Even U.S. officials quietly admitted the tariffs were a form of “economic warfare” – Navarro himself quipped, “It’s a drug war, not a trade war,” when defending the Canada/Mexico tariffs.)

Why target Canada with such extreme trade measures over fentanyl, given Canada’s minor role?

Analysts suggest Trump seized on fentanyl as a convenient scapegoat and bargaining chip. The overdose crisis is a genuine concern for Americans, so framing tariffs as an anti-drug measure gave Trump a populist justification for a trade weapon he had long wanted to use. In reality, fentanyl deaths in the U.S. had already begun to decline by late 2023, and seizures at the border were dropping – undermining the notion of a spiraling “emergency.” But Trump’s tariffs fit his broader protectionist agenda. Canadian observers suspect his real goal was economic: to pressure manufacturers in Canada to relocate to the U.S. or force Canada into concessions. The blanket 25% import tax would hit Canadian industries hard – from auto parts to agriculture – potentially driving investment south of the border.

His Hooker/Press Secretary told us that yesterday:

Trudeau bluntly accused Trump of wanting to see a “total collapse” of the Canadian economy, suggesting Trump’s endgame might be to break Canada’s economic resolve (or even stoke talk of annexation). Peter Navarro’s focus on “saving American jobs” and warning of Chinese influence and cartels in Canada hints that the tariffs were as much about U.S. economic nationalism as about drugs. Indeed, Trump’s team at times tied the fentanyl tariffs to other grievances – pressuring Canada on immigration, trade, and even defense spending. Critics have characterized the move as hostage-taking: using the threat of crippling tariffs unless Canada somehow stopped a fentanyl flow that, by all credible accounts, barely exists. As Oregon Public Broadcasting noted, Trump turned fentanyl into a “flashpoint” in U.S.–Canada relations despite Canada’s minimal role, largely for political theater. Essentially, fentanyl became an economic weapon in Trump’s hands – a pretext to impose tariffs that had long been a Trumpian goal (he had previously mused about tariffs on Canada during NAFTA talks in 2018).

Canadian officials and independent experts have pushed back on Trump’s narrative. Even some U.S. data undermined Trump’s stance: for example, by early 2025 fentanyl seizures at the southwest border had dropped by half compared to a year earlier, indicating the crisis was being managed better, not worse. That reality didn’t deter Trump from doubling down. In late February 2025, he insisted the tariffs would proceed on March 4 because “deadly drugs are still pouring into the U.S.” and “insufficient progress” had been made. This was despite both Canada and Mexico ramping up anti-smuggling efforts and lobbying furiously for relief. By tying tariffs to an ever-shifting metric (“solve” migration and drugs or else), Trump essentially held Canada’s economy hostage to make a point. Many in Canada viewed the fentanyl rationale as disingenuous – merely a cover for economic bullying or even a form of soft annexation strategy. Notably, Trump had also floated the idea of Canada joining the U.S. if it couldn’t stop the drug flows, saying perhaps Canada should become “the 51st state” if it couldn’t withstand his tariffs. All of this suggests Trump’s crusade was less about drugs and more about exerting dominance akin to Putin’s “Denazification” of Ukraine.

Canada’s Response: Retaliation and a Hard Line from Trudeau

Rather than capitulate, Justin Trudeau’s government took a hard line in response to Trump’s tariffs and false claims.

Trudeau categorically rejected Trump’s depiction of Canada. “It won’t happen,” Trudeau said of Trump’s 51st state musings, calling the idea absurd and asserting Canadian sovereignty. On the trade front, as soon as Trump’s tariff orders were signed, Canada announced sweeping retaliatory tariffs of its own. Trudeau’s government imposed 25% surtaxes on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods – one of the most extensive counter-tariff packages in Canadian history. This retaliation was targeted at politically sensitive U.S. exports (from orange juice and whiskey to farm goods and steel). It was designed to “go dollar for dollar” against the U.S. measures. “Canada will not stand by as the United States imposes unjustified and unreasonable tariffs on Canadian goods,” read an official statement, calling Trump’s move an affront to the Canada–U.S. trade relationship. Trudeau stated that Canada’s tariffs will remain in place “until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn.”

He also signaled that Canada was prepared to pursue legal action under the USMCA (the new NAFTA) and at the WTO, exploring “non-tariff measures” in coordination with provinces if necessary. In other words, Trudeau drew a firm line: Canada would not be bullied into sacrificing its economic interests or border policies to appease Trump.

At the same time, Canada did take steps to address U.S. concerns – to the extent they were legitimate. Trudeau’s government created a new “fentanyl czar” position, appointing a former Mountie (Kevin Brosseau) to coordinate anti-narcotics efforts and liaise with U.S. authorities. Canada also agreed to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations (a symbolic move sought by Trump) and to increase border security staffing and technology. These actions were part of a February 2025 deal that persuaded Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Canadian officials, however, emphasize that none of this was actually “new” – Canada was already ramping up fentanyl enforcement. “It’s nothing new to us that fentanyl is a priority,” said Supt. Cochlin, noting Canadian police had been “all hands on deck” against fentanyl trafficking well before Trump’s threats. Trudeau balanced a two-pronged response: cooperate on real issues, but stand firm against unjustified economic punishment. When Trump decided to proceed with tariffs in March, Canada matched them and refused to blink. This resolve won Trudeau unusual domestic support across party lines (even typically Canada-U.S. friendly Conservatives backed retaliation). It also reinforced the principle that the USMCA trade agreement must be respected – Trump’s unilateral tariffs arguably violate the spirit (if not letter) of the pact, and Trudeau signaled he would fight any such violations. In sum, Trudeau took a hardline stance, pursuing retaliatory tariffs and preparing legal enforcement, while refusing Trump’s narrative that Canada was the problem. As Trudeau said of the U.S. president, “we’re not going to let ourselves be pushed around.” (That quote dates back to a 2018 spat, but it also aptly captured Trudeau’s 2025 approach.)

The Verdict: Trump’s Claims Don’t Match the Facts, and Canadians Aren’t Buying It

When we fact-check Trump’s statements and look at the data, it’s clear that Canada is not a major culprit in America’s fentanyl crisis. Trump’s claim of “hundreds of thousands” of American deaths due to Canadian fentanyl smuggling is egregiously false – total U.S. fentanyl deaths are a fraction of that, and Canada’s share of U.S.-bound fentanyl is negligible. Independent investigations by journalists and public agencies on both sides of the border confirm that the vast bulk of illicit fentanyl enters the U.S. from Mexico (often driven by U.S. demand), not from Canada. Meanwhile, if one were assigning blame for cross-border smuggling, the reality is that U.S. exports of illegal guns and drugs are wreaking far more havoc in Canada than the reverse. This asymmetry undercuts the Trump administration’s narrative.

Trump’s aggressive use of the fentanyl issue appears to be motivated by politics and protectionism rather than facts. Even Peter Navarro’s lurid cartel allegations about Canada have no credible backing and serve primarily to demonize Canada and justify extreme trade measures. (It’s worth noting that Navarro’s broader economic claims were also dubious – economists warned Trump’s Canada/Mexico tariffs would hurt U.S. consumers and could tip Canada into recession.) In short, Trump was using a false narrative as leverage, and Canada called him on it.

Canadian public opinion strongly supports Trudeau’s stance and rejects Trump’s claims. Far from rallying Canadians against their own government, Trump’s threats have soured Canadians’ views of Trump and the U.S.. A February 2025 Ipsos poll found 68% of Canadians say they think worse of the U.S. because of Trump’s tariff threats and his talk of Canada as the “51st state”. Nearly half said their opinion of the U.S. had strongly deteriorated. Many Canadians are now boycotting American goods and travel in response. Multiple surveys show Canadian sentiment toward Trump is overwhelmingly negative – roughly 7 in 10 Canadians have an unfavorable view of Trump, with only around 15–20% favorable. These numbers have only grown more negative amid the tariff fight. And on Trump’s provocative suggestion that Canada might join the Union: Canadians resoundingly say “no way.” An Angus Reid poll in January 2025 found 90% of Canadians oppose becoming the 51st U.S. state. That poll also showed that most Canadians believe Trump is serious about annexation talk, and it greatly worries them. In other words, Trump’s rhetoric is backfiring in Canada. Even Canada’s conservative opposition (who are no fans of Trudeau) have felt compelled to condemn Trump’s actions. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre blasted Trump’s tariff threat as an “unjustified” attack on “America’s best friend” and vowed that any Canadian prime minister must put Canada’s workers first in trade disputes. There is a broad consensus in Canada – spanning government, media, and the public – that Trump’s fentanyl claims are bogus and his tariff tactic is an abuse of the economic relationship.

In conclusion, independent fact-checks and data strongly refute Trump’s portrayal of Canada as a fentanyl super-villain. Canada is not causing America’s fentanyl overdose epidemic; at most, it’s a bit player compared to other sources. Trump’s “hundreds of thousands of deaths” claim is false, and using it to justify tariffs looks like a cynical ploy. Highlighting the opposite flow of contraband (U.S. guns into Canada) as a serious issue – something Trump’s narrative ignores. By all accounts, Trump’s hardball approach is driven less by facts on fentanyl and more by a desire to exert economic pressure. Canada’s government has responded in kind, meeting tariffs with tariffs and insisting on truth in the conversation. And Canadians, for their part, are firmly backing their country: they reject Trump’s false claims and intimidation, and have little appetite for any closer union with a Trump-led America. The data and the public sentiment align on this: Trump’s fentanyl tariff gambit against Canada is built on misinformation and is facing stiff resistance from a united Canada all saying the same thing.

Go Fuck Yourself, Eh.