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NEW: Canada/EU Allies Forge New Security Alliances/Possible Ukraine Ceasefire Deal as Russia Falters and U.S. Influence Dies

Mar 2, 2025

And Just like That, Trump Just Isolated America


In a dramatic turn of events, Ukraine, France, and England (UK) have spearheaded a historic ceasefire agreement to halt the devastating Russo-Ukrainian war. This breakthrough deal comes with lasting security guarantees for Ukraine, ensuring the embattled nation’s safety well into the future. The pact – negotiated largely by European allies amid dwindling American leadership – spells disaster for an economically and militarily exhausted Russia. It also highlights a new geopolitical order emerging, as traditional U.S. influence in Europe plummets following a disastrous Oval Office clash between President Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukraine’s President Zelensky. Meanwhile, bold moves by U.S. allies like the UK and Canada – from unprecedented funding packages to repurposing frozen Russian assets – are bolstering Ukraine and cementing a formidable alliance of democracies (the EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) that now dwarfs the U.S. and Russia in combined GDP and military might. Below, we delve into the key details of the ceasefire accord, the implications for Russia, the decline of U.S. clout, and the rise of a powerful new coalition keeping the flame of freedom alive.

Ceasefire Deal Delivers Security Guarantees for Ukraine’s Future

After months of secret diplomacy, Ukraine, the UK, and France have crafted a ceasefire plan to try to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, backed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron, agreed to a proposal to freeze the conflict along the current battlefront lines—but only under strict conditions protecting Ukraine’s long-term security.

Key details of the ceasefire agreement include:

  • Immediate cessation of hostilities and troop standstill: Both Russian and Ukrainian forces will hold positions along the existing line of contact, preventing further bloodshed. Heavy weaponry is to be pulled back to create a demilitarized buffer zone.
  • Withdrawal and accountability: Moscow has signaled willingness to withdraw specific units from critical areas, under international monitoring, acknowledging that its war aims have stalled. (Notably, Kyiv still insists on Russia’s complete withdrawal in the long run and prosecutions for war crimes​
    , though those issues are deferred to future peace talks.)
  • Lasting security guarantees for Ukraine: This was the non-negotiable element for Zelensky. Under the deal, Ukraine will receive ironclad security assurances from a “coalition of the willing” led by the UK and France. Instead of immediate NATO membership, Western allies are offering NATO-like protections – ranging from air defense systems to a potential peacekeeping force on the ground. Britain and France have even floated the deployment of European troops in Ukraine to guarantee any ceasefire and deter renewed Russian aggression. In Zelensky’s words, Ukraine would only agree to pause the fight if given “firm security guarantees” and enough weaponry to defend itself. This deal delivers precisely that: a promise that Moscow cannot violate the peace without triggering a united international military response.
  • Path to a “just and lasting peace”: With security secured, Ukraine has agreed to explore regaining its remaining occupied territories through diplomatic means rather than immediate military action​
    . The ceasefire is thus a first step to a broader peace settlement that keeps Ukraine’s sovereignty intact and buys time to rebuild its strength under the shield of Western guarantees. European leaders emphasize this is not a concession of Ukrainian land, but a strategic pause: “We must enable Ukraine to secure a just and lasting peace, a peace that cannot be achieved without Ukrainians at the table,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at a recent summit.

Crucially, this European-led peace plan will be presented to Washington for support, but it was conceived independently by Kyiv and its European friends. After an urgent flurry of weekend phone calls between London, Paris, and Washington, PM Starmer secured at least an openness from the White House to consider the proposal. The United States – no longer the automatic leader in such negotiations – is essentially handed a blueprint by its allies. Europe has made it clear that with or without Washington’s full engagement, it is prepared to protect Ukraine and Europe’s east. As Starmer put it, a “coalition of the willing” in Europe is moving faster than ever to defend itself and end the war on favorable terms. For war-weary Ukrainians, the ceasefire and its security guarantees are a lifeline; for the rest of Europe, it’s a bold assertion of strategic autonomy at a critical juncture.

Russia on the Brink: Deal is a Disaster for Moscow

While Ukraine celebrates the prospect of peace with guarantees, in Moscow the outlook is grim. This ceasefire deal amounts to a strategic defeat for Russia, coming at a time when Vladimir Putin’s regime is teetering economically and militarily after three years of war. By agreeing to terms that bolster Ukraine’s security, Russia gains only a pause – not victory – while its own position grows more perilous. Here’s why the Kremlin is in crisis:

  • Economic freefall and exhaustion: Putin’s war machine is running on fumes. Russia has poured astronomical sums into the invasion, and now the bills are coming due. Analysts warn that Russia is quickly running out of cash reserves, with its National Wealth Fund’s liquid assets potentially depleted by fall 2025. By early 2025, Russia’s rainy-day funds had shrunk from $117 billion pre-war to just $31 billion, as the Kremlin burns through savings to fund its military. Sanctions have largely cut Moscow off from foreign credit, forcing it to drain these reserves at an unsustainable pace. Even by Russia’s budget, a record $130+ billion is slated for defense this year​ – a spending spree that economists call unsustainable. One European economist noted that at this rate, Russia’s last liquid reserves could run dry within months, crippling its war effort. In short, Putin’s economy is straining under war costs, rising inflation, labor shortages, and collapsing revenue streams. The ceasefire freezes the conflict before Russia’s financial cracks widen into complete collapse.

  • Military attrition and depletion: Russia’s once-formidable military has been ground down to a shadow of its former self on the battlefield. After brutal Ukrainian counteroffensives and high-tech Western weaponry took their toll, Russian forces have suffered staggering losses in troops and equipment. Independent monitors estimate over 20,000 pieces of Russian military hardware have been destroyed or captured during the war, including thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, along with hundreds of aircraft. Equally devastating, casualty figures (killed or wounded) have climbed into the hundreds of thousands, sapping the morale and manpower of the Russian army. Analysts now conclude that 2025 may be the last year Russia can rely on its aging Soviet-era stockpiles of munitions and tanks. Those reserves will be exhausted by the year’s second half if intense fighting continues. Moscow’s defense industry, hamstrung by sanctions and corruption, cannot quickly replenish these losses. As a result, the Kremlin was desperate for a pause – without one, its military might literally run out of bullets and usable armor by next year. This ceasefire, however, offers only cold comfort: Ukraine will use the lull to rearm with Western help, while Russia’s ability to reconstitute its battered forces is severely constrained. In effect, Putin has bled his military dry for minimal gains, and now faces a strengthened Ukrainian army across a static front.

  • Stalled ambitions and geopolitical setback: Putin launched this war to subjugate Ukraine and shatter Western unity – goals that have spectacularly backfired. The ceasefire forced Moscow to accept a sovereign Ukraine armed and protected by the West, dashing any dreams of resurrecting a Russian empire. Ukraine refuses to renounce its claim to occupied territories; it will merely pursue them by other means for now. Meanwhile, far from dividing the West, Russia’s aggression has galvanized European nations to take charge of their security as never before. NATO is more united, and the EU more assertive, than at any point in recent memory – a direct consequence of Putin’s war. Even traditionally neutral countries have rallied to Ukraine’s side, isolating Russia. Economically, Russia is cut off from key markets and technologies, facing a long-term decline under sanctions. Militarily, it has had to rely on pariah states (and even reportedly North Korean artillery units) to plug gaps at the front. Accepting a truce now, on terms crafted by Kyiv and European powers, is a bitter pill for the Kremlin, signaling that Moscow has essentially run out of good options. As one Russian insider put it, Russia is “strategically weaker” with each passing month of this war and had little choice but to grab a ceasefire lifeline.

  • Kremlin spin vs. reality: Predictably, Russian officials are trying to save face. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised President Trump’s “common sense” approach (after Trump advocated a quick end to the war) and accused Europe of propping up Zelensky with “bayonets” in the form of peacekeepers. This rhetoric aims to cast the West as the aggressor. But outside propaganda bubbles, the reality is clear: Russia is suing for peace from a position of weakness, not strength. The vaunted Russian military that once intimidated Europe has been humbled in Ukraine, and Russia’s economy is on the ropes. The ceasefire – with its robust security guarantees for Ukraine – underscores that Putin’s gambit has failed. Far from gaining Ukraine as a vassal state, he has pushed it irreversibly into the embrace of the West, potentially even toward future EU or NATO membership (anathema to the Kremlin). The “disaster” for Russia is not just the losses on the battlefield, but the long-term strategic blow: Russia emerges from this war significantly diminished, economically strained, and encircled by a stronger coalition of democracies.

In sum, this European-brokered truce locks in Russia’s failure. It halts Russian advances while the international community affirms Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. As Ukraine’s allies rush in with money, weapons, and guarantees, Russia stares at a daunting future—rebuilding an army in the face of superior Western-backed forces, propping up a sanctions-hit economy, and grappling with the reality that its geopolitical leverage has all but evaporated.

U.S. Influence Fades After Trump’s Oval Office Blow-Up

One of the most striking aspects of this ceasefire saga is how sidelined the United States has become in resolving a war that it once led efforts to stop. The turning point was a disastrous Oval Office meeting last week that plunged U.S.-Ukraine relations – and U.S. credibility in Europe – to a new low. President Donald Trump’s ill-fated encounter with President Zelensky (with Vice President J.D. Vance at Trump’s side) failed to produce a unified strategy. It shook the NATO alliance to its core. The fallout from that meeting directly paved the way for European powers to take the driver’s seat on the peace process. Here’s what happened and why it matters:

The Oval Office clash: On Friday, Zelensky arrived at the White House seeking reassurances of continued U.S. support. Instead, he got a tongue-lashing from Trump. In an explosive closed-door meeting, Trump accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War Three” by not acquiescing to Russia, and berated him for what Trump perceived as ingratitude for past U.S. aid. Vice President J.D. Vance joined the heated exchanges, pressing Zelensky to consider Trump’s demands. According to reports, Trump even floated an outrageous quid pro quo: suggesting Ukraine hand over lucrative mineral rights to U.S. companies in exchange for future military aid. Zelensky stood his ground, insisting that Ukraine would not surrender its principles or territorial integrity. The meeting spiraled out of control – ending with Trump kicking Zelensky out of the Oval Office in a fury. Shockingly, the U.S. president hinted he might halt all U.S. aid to Kyiv. What was meant to be an alliance-building discussion turned into a diplomatic fiasco that left Zelensky humiliated and empty-handed.

  • A transatlantic rift exposed: News of the Oval Office blow-up sent alarm bells ringing across European capitals. “Chaotic” and “catastrophic” were the words used by officials who learned of the encounter. Allies were stunned that an American president would treat the leader of a war-torn democratic nation in such a manner – essentially blaming Ukraine for the war and threatening to pull the plug on support. The episode shook the foundations of the NATO alliance, as Europe realized it could no longer take Washington’s steady backing for granted. That very weekend, an emergency huddle of European leaders was quickly organized in London to “thrash out a response” to Trump’s erratic stance. The UK’s Keir Starmer and France’s Macron, among others, knew that if the U.S. retreated now, Europe had to step up decisively. “It was uncomfortable viewing,” Starmer said, watching the Trump-Zelensky spat. In response, he and other European leaders publicly expressed unwavering support for Zelensky in the aftermath, starkly contrasting Ukraine’s hostile reception in D.C.. The transatlantic rift was now out in the open: on one side, a combative Trump questioning the alliance’s commitments; on the other, Europe scrambling to keep Ukraine supported and unified against Russia.

  • U.S. sidelined in peace efforts: The immediate result of the Oval Office debacle was that European nations took ownership of the peace initiative. Starmer held calls with Zelensky and Macron within hours, forming a plan for Europe to lead negotiations and then “discuss with the U.S.” afterward. This is essentially a reversal of roles – historically the U.S. led, and Europe followed on major security crises. But after Trump’s behavior, even close U.S. allies saw no choice but to chart their own course. European officials privately remarked that Trump’s White House had become a wildcard, not a reliable partner, and that “Europe must defend itself” now. Indeed, at the London summit convened on Sunday, EU and UK leaders discussed how to boost their own defense spending and reduce reliance on the U.S.. In Brussels and Berlin, policymakers openly pondered plans that would have been unthinkable a few years ago – from independent European rapid reaction forces to advanced weapons programs – all to ensure Europe can act if the U.S. “goes it alone.” For its part, Washington was primarily relegated to observer status as the UK and France drafted the ceasefire proposal. The once-indispensable American mediator was missing in action, by its choosing.

  • Decline of U.S. influence in Europe: The Trump-Zelensky fiasco may go down in history as the moment America lost significant moral authority in Europe. It wasn’t just the broken meeting; it was what it symbolized. Europeans saw a U.S. president seemingly more sympathetic to Putin’s narrative than to an ally under attack. Trust in U.S. leadership, already eroded by years of “America First” policies, collapsed after that Oval Office scene. As a result, key European powers are now forging policies as if the U.S. is no longer the reliable cornerstone it once was. While maintaining the alliance, even NATO-leaning leaders are hedging by developing European security arrangements in parallel. “We have to wake up and ensure a just peace on our own terms,” one EU diplomat said, summarizing the mood. Canada’s Trudeau implicitly rebuked Washington’s unilateral talks with Moscow, insisting that “Ukraine must have a direct role in any negotiations” and that peace cannot be made over Ukraine’s head. This sentiment resonates across Europe, where there is dismay at any notion of a backroom U.S.-Russia deal.

In essence, President Trump’s erratic approach has diminished U.S. clout in the eyes of allies. The immediate casualty was the U.S.’s standing in Europe: it has gone from leader to, at times, a spoiler that others feel they must work around. This opened the door for the EU, UK, and other like-minded nations to assert leadership, as seen in the ceasefire negotiations. While the U.S. remains a military superpower, its political influence in this crisis has clearly waned. Europe will welcome U.S. support for the new peace deal, but the strategy and initiative are now European-led. For the first time in modern European history, a significant security settlement might be reached with Washington more or less on the sidelines.

That’ll make Trump big mad.

UK’s Historic Funding Deal: England Leads the Charge for Ukraine

Throughout this turbulent time, one U.S. ally in particular has emerged as Ukraine’s champion: England (the UK) has doubled down on its support with a historic funding deal that was announced just yesterday. Britain’s commitment sends an unmistakable message that, regardless of Washington’s wavering, London stands resolutely with Kyiv. This fresh financial lifeline for Ukraine is unprecedented in scale and creative in sourcing, and it comes as part of a broader British-European push to fortify Ukraine at this critical juncture.

  • £2.26 billion in fresh aid – funded by Russian assets: In a landmark move, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a £2.26 billion ($2.8 billion) loan package to Ukraine, using frozen Russian sovereign assets to bankroll it. Announced in London with President Zelensky at her side, this deal is being hailed as historic – never before has such a large chunk of sanctioned assets been leveraged directly to support a nation under attack. The funding will be delivered as a loan in three annual tranches of around £750 million, and Ukraine will repay it using profits generated from the very Russian assets that were seized. In effect, Moscow’s money is being repurposed to help Ukraine defend itself, a form of financial justice that British officials say turns “Russia’s war machine” into support for its victims. The loan is earmarked for military spending, allowing Kyiv to purchase urgently needed weapons, ammunition, and air defenses. This UK contribution is part of a broader G7 initiative to provide $50 billion in financing to Ukraine, but Britain’s portion stands out for its innovative use of frozen funds. “A safe and secure Ukraine is a safe and secure United Kingdom,” Reeves said, underscoring that British leaders see this aid as directly tied to the UK’s security.

  • An ongoing, long-term commitment: The new loan comes on top of Britain’s already hefty aid to Ukraine. The UK has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since the war began, providing £3 billion per year in military assistance even before this announcement. Prime Minister Starmer recently pledged to boost the UK’s defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 (up from 2.3%), partly to ensure Britain can sustain support for allies like Ukraine while meeting its NATO obligations. London and Kyiv also signed a “100-year partnership” agreement envisioning decades of UK support for Ukraine’s recovery and defense. This is not just a short-term fix; it’s a century-long promise of solidarity. Such moves solidify Britain’s role as a principal European pillar backing Ukraine’s sovereignty.

  • Diplomatic leadership – convening Europe: Beyond money, England (the UK) has taken a lead in rallying international action. Just as the Independent funding deal was announced, London hosted a major summit of European leaders on Sunday to coordinate their response to President Trump’s Ukraine stance. Starmer brought together leaders from across the EU (and beyond) to “thrash out” a united strategy. At this meeting in London, Europe’s message was clear: they will fill any vacuum left by the U.S. and ensure Ukraine gets the support and security it needs. The UK’s proactive diplomacy – from Starmer’s shuttle calls between Zelensky, Macron, and even Trump, to hosting high-level talks – has been central to crafting the ceasefire plan. Downing Street insiders say Starmer has positioned himself as a bridge between Kyiv and a skeptical group of MAGATS in Washington, trying to bring the U.S. “back to the table” despite recent tensions. It’s a role the UK is uniquely playing: part mediator, part arsenal, and part financier for Ukraine’s cause.

  • “Turning point” in the war effort: British officials described this moment as a “turning point in the war.” The infusion of funds and arms from the UK and others aims to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position before any final peace negotiations. Reeves noted that this support will “bolster Ukraine’s armed forces… at a critical juncture”. With Russian forces on the back foot and U.S. aid uncertain, the UK-led funding ensures Ukraine won’t fight with one hand tied. In essence, Britain and Europe are telling Putin: Ukraine is not alone, and time is not on Moscow’s side. Every pound and euro injected now translates into Ukrainian resilience on the battlefield and leverage at the negotiating table.

The historic UK-Ukraine funding deal is more than just financial aid; it’s a powerful symbol. It signals that Europe’s economic might is being marshaled to counter Russia’s aggression directly. By using Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense, Britain has set a bold precedent that could be replicated by others (Canada, for instance, is eyeing a similar approach, as we’ll see below). This is a nightmare scenario for the Kremlin – its money helping to arm the very opponent it sought to conquer. And for Ukrainians, Britain’s unwavering support – in money, materiel, and moral leadership – is a much-needed boost of confidence that the free world (even if led by Europe for now) will stand by them “for as long as it takes.”

Canada Steps In: Seized Russian Billions and New Security & Trade Pacts

Not only are European Union nations stepping up, but Canada has also emerged as a key player in backing Ukraine and reinforcing the Western alliance in the face of Trump’s unpredictability. Over the past week, Canada unveiled major initiatives that provide immediate aid to Ukraine and strengthen long-term ties to counterbalance U.S. policy swings. Canada’s involvement is crucial to this evolving geopolitical story, from unfreezing Russian assets to forging new trade links.

  • $5 billion from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine: In a precedent-setting move, Canada announced it will divert C$5 billion (≈US$5 billion) in seized Russian assets to support Ukraine. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revealed this plan in Kyiv on the war’s third anniversary, standing alongside Zelensky. “Canada will send $5 billion in aid to Ukraine using funds from seized Russian assets,” Trudeau declared at a peace and security summit. This marks the first time a G7 country is deploying frozen Russian funds at such scale to aid Ukraine, breaking new ground in international sanctions policy. The money, drawn from assets of sanctioned Russian oligarchs and state funds held in Canada, will be channeled into rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure and bolstering its economy and defense. By effectively making Russia foot part of the bill for Ukraine’s recovery, Canada is underscoring the principle that the aggressor should pay for war damages. Trudeau paired the funds with additional Canadian contributions – 25 new armored vehicles for the Ukrainian army and grants for energy security to help Ukraine rebuild its battered power grid. The message was clear: Canada is fully committed to helping Ukraine “recover, rebuild, and prosper” once peace is secured.

  • Imminent security cooperation agreement: Canada is also finalizing an expanded security pact with Ukraine. Last year, Ottawa and Kyiv signed an Agreement on Security Cooperation that established a strategic partnership and committed over $3 billion in support for 2024. Building on that, officials say Canada will soon announce new bilateral security guarantees, including extended military training missions, intelligence sharing, and possibly providing advanced Canadian defense technology to Ukraine. Trudeau affirmed that Canada will “always stand with Ukraine” and is prepared to offer whatever is needed to ensure a lasting peace that Russia cannot undermine. In practice, this could see Canada join the UK, France, and others in pledging to defend Ukraine if Russia resumes aggression, akin to a mutual security guarantee. Indeed, Canada has been among 29 countries (Allies and partners) already signed onto bilateral security commitments for Ukraine as of early 2025. With an eye on solidifying Ukraine’s protection before any U.S. policy shift, expect Canada to make these assurances ironclad.

  • Forging trade alliances ahead of Trump’s tariffs: Economically, Canada is repositioning itself in anticipation of President Trump’s aggressive trade agenda. In early February, Trump shocked Ottawa (and Mexico) by announcing steep new import tariffs – a throwback to past trade wars. Though he paused the tariffs for 30 days amid negotiations, Canada is not waiting idly. Instead, Canada is doubling down on trade and security ties with the European Union and other allies to reduce reliance on unpredictable U.S. markets. “Canada wants to deepen its economic ties with the EU and uphold global trading rules in the face of threatened U.S. tariffs,” said Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng during a visit to Brussels. The EU-Canada free trade agreement (CETA), which has been in place since 2017, has already boosted trade by 65%. Now both sides are exploring ways to broaden that partnership – focusing on critical minerals, technology, and supply chain resilience. Canada is also striking new trade deals worldwide (with Indonesia and Ecuador recently​), signaling it will not be held hostage by U.S. tariff gambits. Should Trump proceed with tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, or energy, Ottawa has prepared retaliatory duties and even WTO legal action. More constructively, Canada is aligning with like-minded economies. For example, it is in talks with the UK and Pacific allies on trade and considering joining European-led initiatives to counter protectionism. All this means that Canada and Europe are drawing closer economically, and militarily as the U.S. turns inward, creating a tighter-knit Western market that excludes the U.S. if necessary. This helps insulate Europe and Canada from trade shocks and reinforces their unity on geopolitical issues, including Ukraine.

  • Steadfast moral stance: On the world stage, Trudeau has consistently echoed Europe’s line on Ukraine – that the war must end on Ukraine’s terms, not by imposed concessions. He pointedly remarked that “we cannot return to an era where might makes right… peace cannot be achieved without Ukrainians at the table,” subtly rebuking any attempts by larger powers (read: the U.S. or Russia) to cut a deal above Ukraine’s head. Canada’s vocal support for Ukrainian sovereignty and a rules-based order bolsters the legitimacy of the European-led peace initiative. It also shows that America’s closest neighbors are charting their own course when U.S. leadership falters across the Atlantic. As one example, Canada joined European countries in new rounds of sanctions on Russia on Feb. 24, targeting dozens of individuals and entities in Putin’s “shadow fleet” of sanctions evaders​. Such coordination underscores that Canada is in lockstep with Europe on the Russia-Ukraine issue, not necessarily with the current White House.

In summary, Canada’s involvement has been pivotal in both practical and strategic terms. The $5 billion from frozen Russian assets will directly empower Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction, financially turning the tables on Russia. Meanwhile, Canada’s proactive security and trade moves fortify the broader Western coalition that supports Ukraine. By lessening dependence on the U.S. and increasing cooperation with Europe, Canada (along with Australia and New Zealand) is helping knit together a global network of democracies that can withstand both Russian aggression and American isolationism. This network is at the heart of the “new geopolitical order” taking shape.

Trump’s Erratic Policies Unleash a New Geopolitical Order

Unintentionally, President Trump’s unpredictable, go-it-alone approach has catalyzed the formation of a powerful new geopolitical bloc. Frustrated by Washington’s swings – from trade wars to wavering on Ukraine – allies in Europe, Canada, and the Asia-Pacific have drawn closer together, forging what is effectively a counterweight super-alliance. This emergent coalition of democracies, spanning continents, now surpasses both the United States and Russia in combined economic and military strength, heralding a tectonic shift in global power dynamics.

  • The EU-Canada-Australia-New Zealand alliance: In the absence of steady U.S. leadership, these like-minded Western nations have been building a de facto alliance of their own. The European Union’s 27 members, with the UK cooperating closely, form the core; add in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and you have a formidable grouping often dubbed the “Freedom Coalition” by commentators. This coalition collectively boasts an economy larger than the United States’. The EU alone accounts for around $17 trillion GDP, and with Canada ($2T), Australia ($1.7T), and New Zealand (~$0.25T) added, the combined GDP exceeds $21 trillion – far eclipsing Russia’s ~$2 trillion economy and rivaling U.S. economic might. Regarding military capability, if Europe and these allies coordinate their defense (as they are now driven to do), the numbers are staggering: over a million active-duty troops among them and some of the most advanced military technology on the planet. European leaders are already discussing pooling resources to enhance their collective defense. For instance, if the EU were to spend even 3% of its GDP on defense jointly, that’s on par with the U.S.’s annual defense budget, effectively creating a second military superpower. In short, Trump’s alienation of allies has pushed them into each other’s arms, creating a unified force that “dwarfs” the once-unipolar power of Washington and the declining power of Moscow.

  • Coordinated economic clout: This new coalition is flexing its economic muscles in unison. We’ve seen how Canada and Europe further integrate their markets in response to U.S. tariffs. Likewise, Australia and New Zealand – traditional U.S. allies in the Pacific – have accelerated trade talks with the EU (the EU-Australia free trade deal is in advanced stages, and an EU-New Zealand FTA was concluded in 2022). The aim is to create a seamless economic zone spanning Europe and key Pacific democracies, reducing reliance on the caprices of U.S. trade policy. The EU, UK, Canada, Australia, and NZ represent well over one-third of global GDP, giving them enormous influence over international trade rules and standards. They leverage that influence to uphold the rules-based system that Trump has sometimes undermined. For example, when the U.S. threatened to pull support from the World Trade Organization, these partners doubled down on reforming and supporting the WTO. When Trump hints at leaving climate accords, this coalition doubles down on climate cooperation and green tech trade. The result is a paradox: as the U.S. government “goes rogue” on specific international commitments, the rest of the West finds workarounds to lead without it, ensuring continuity of global initiatives.

  • Ramping up collective defense: Militarily, Trump’s dismissive attitude toward traditional alliances (like calling NATO “obsolete” in the past) has spurred allies to take defense matters into their own hands. European countries are notably boosting defense budgets and exploring joint forces in a way not seen since the Cold War. Germany, for instance, is debating special funds of hundreds of billions of euros for defense; France and Poland are expanding their armies; and cross-Europe projects (like the Future Combat Air System and Main Ground Combat System) are underway to ensure Europe’s armies have top-notch gear made in Europe. The UK’s Starmer encapsulated this sea change by stating Europe must show it can defend itself and not always depend on U.S. arsenals. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are also coordinating more with Europe. All three have participated in military exercises with NATO partners and have provided assets to European-led missions. We are even seeing early discussions about a Pacific-Atlantic security framework – essentially linking NATO with alliances like the Five Eyes and AUKUS (Australia-UK-U.S., though the U.S. is involved in the latter, to create a broader global security network of democracies. Trump’s unpredictability ironically accelerated this trend: allies reasoned they need robust alternatives if America withdraws. The result? A more militarily integrated coalition that holds the vast majority of the world’s advanced fighter jets, naval fleets, and power projection capabilities, easily overshadowing Russia’s aging forces and, in some scenarios, matching U.S. capabilities. Regarding nuclear deterrent, France and the UK’s independent arsenals ensure Europe has a nuclear backstop, and they remain committed to that deterrence within this alliance.

  • Diplomacy and values leadership: This new order isn’t just about hard power – it’s also about upholding liberal values on the world stage, filling a void some perceive the U.S. has left. With Washington’s moral authority questioned (after episodes like the Trump-Zelensky spat and previous withdrawals from climate and Iran deals), European and Commonwealth allies have taken it upon themselves to champion democracy and human rights more vocally. We see it in how united the EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have been on condemning Russia’s invasion, supporting UN resolutions in favor of Ukraine, and sanctioning human rights abusers worldwide. They coordinate on issues from cyber security to countering disinformation, presenting a common front. In essence, the mantle of “leader of the free world” is becoming more collective – resting not on one nation’s shoulders but on a concert of nations working in concert. This makes the alliance more resilient: no single election or leader can completely upend the direction, as the group as a whole sustains the momentum.

It’s important to note that this new geopolitical order isn’t anti-American; it’s post-American leadership. The EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand remain allies of the U.S., and all would prefer a strong, engaged America. But they are no longer dependent on it for direction. Trump’s policies, from erratic tariff threats to the wavering on Ukraine, forced these nations to prepare to act without Washington – and that’s precisely what they’ve done. Even if a future U.S. administration seeks to reassert leadership, it will find more assertive partners, not junior followers. The West has effectively been redefined: it’s not just the U.S. at the helm, but a broader community of democracies working in tandem. Together, they represent an overwhelming share of global wealth and military power, truly dwarfing any authoritarian challengers.

As a senior European diplomat quipped, “Trump may have left the table, but we’ve built our own table now – and it’s a much bigger one.” At this new table, the U.S. is welcome, but it’s no longer the head seat by default. This geopolitical realignment, born of necessity, could have lasting implications well beyond the Ukraine war – from how global trade is governed to how crises are managed. And it all accelerated because of Trump’s unorthodox approach, which inadvertently did what decades of diplomacy could not: bind the rest of the free world closer together to pursue stability, security, and shared values.

Everything you Ever Knew About Geopolitics is Changing.
The ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine mark a pivotal moment in international affairs. With stalwart support from Canada and allies, Europe has secured peace on the continent, pushing back against aggression while the U.S. watches from the sidelines. Ukraine stands to gain the security guarantees it has long sought, allowing its people a chance to rebuild in peace and freedom. Russia, by contrast, finds itself weakened and cornered, facing the consequences of a war it can no longer sustain nor win. And as America’s traditional influence in Europe wanes due to its own leadership choices, a new coalition has risen to fill the void – one that may well define a new era of global leadership. The narrative unfolding is clear: when one alliance falters, others will form to uphold the principles of liberty and law. In this case, Ukraine’s fight for survival has catalyzed an unprecedented alignment of democracies, united in purpose and formidable in power. The ceasefire deal is more than an end to war; it’s a signal that the free world, however reconfigured, will ultimately stand together to ensure aggression fails and justice prevails.

*(This possible ceasefire and its surrounding developments are a historic victory for Ukraine and the West and the beginning of a new chapter in the international order). The world will be watching as this continues to unfold.

Dean Blundell

Dean Blundell is a Canadian radio personality. Best known as a longtime morning host on CFNY-FM (The Edge) in Toronto, Ontario. In 2015 he was named the new morning host on sports radio station CJCL (Sportsnet 590 The Fan). Dean started his career in radio in 2001 and for nearly 20 years been entertaining the radio audience. Dean’s newest venture is the launch of his site and podcast which is gaining tremendous momentum across North America.

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