President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on Mexico and Canada, invoking national security to justify these measures—but the tariffs have nothing to do with the border or National Security.

Trump announced 25% duties on all Mexican and Canadian imports unless those countries “crack down” on undocumented migration and fentanyl drug trafficking. He claims Mexico’s government is effectively in league with cartels to flood the US with narcotics – an allegation the Mexican president blasted as “slanderous”.​ Mexico’s leaders angrily refute Trump’s false cartel accusations, calling them a baseless smear against their government. Nevertheless, Trump insists the border crisis is an “emergency” and has even signaled he could take unilateral action on Mexican soil under the guise of fighting drug gangs.

Equally full of shit are Trump’s belligerent gestures toward Canada. His Fentanyl excuse, like his Mexico excuse, is a lie he’s using as a pretext to war. He has openly mused about erasing the U.S.-Canada border and treating our northern neighbor as American territory. In late 2024, Trump joked about “annexing” Canada – referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of the “Great State of Canada” – and even tweeted maps showing Canada absorbed into the United States. By January, he doubled down at the World Economic Forum in Davos, declaring “I would love to see Canada become the 51st state” and telling Canadians “you could always become a state” if they want to avoid his tariffs.​ Such comments raise the disturbing possibility that Trump’s tariff provocation is a pretext – setting the stage for more extreme moves, even military intervention, against our two closest neighbors. Trump’s own Defense officials and allies have hinted at this: designating Mexican cartels as terrorists “appears… a stepping stone to using force”, and experts warn that with Trump back as commander-in-chief, US strikes in Mexico are “all too plausible.”​ In short, these tariff fights aren’t just about trade – they feed into Trump’s expansionist dreams. Like a fat, incontinent Alexander the Great, Trump wants his legacy to be about global domination and expansion.

Economic Impact

The economic costs of Trump’s tariffs are immediate and far-reaching. Canada and Mexico are America’s top trading partners, tightly woven into US supply chains after decades of free trade. Now Trump has yanked the rug out from under this relationship. Ottawa responded swiftly with a tariff retaliation package: Prime Minister Trudeau announced 25% duties on C$30 billion ($20.7 billion) of US goods, ranging from American beer and bourbon to wine, home appliances and Florida orange juice. If Trump’s tariffs aren’t lifted in three weeks, Canada will expand its retaliation to a whopping C$155 billion, effectively taxing almost all US exports. Mexico’s government likewise vowed to retaliate in kind. Even US allies at the state level are taking extreme measures – Ontario’s Premier threatened to cut off exports of nickel and even electricity to the US as payback. These counter-tariffs punish American industries from Midwestern farmers to Kentucky distillers, squeezing the very workers Trump claims to protect.

Unsurprisingly, financial markets recoiled at Trump’s trade broadside. Stocks plunged on the announcement of the tariffs, wiping out recent gains. Wall Street suffered its worst day in months – the S&P 500 index fell nearly 1.8%, its most significant one-day drop since late December, and the Dow and Nasdaq sank between 1.5% and 2.6%. Global investors are clearly spooked that a North American trade war will hurt corporate earnings and economic growth. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has warned of recession risk: its GDPNow model swung from forecasting +3.9% growth to a –2.8% contraction for Q1 2025 as the tariff news hit. In other words, Trump’s trade aggression could single-handedly tip America into a downturn – a potential “Trump recession” by his own making.

Beyond Wall Street, average American consumers will feel the pain in their wallets. Tariffs function as import taxes, and US importers must pay them (as even Warren Buffett dryly noted, “the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ’em.”

Those costs get passed directly to shoppers through higher prices. A wide range of everyday goods will become more expensive – from cars and trucks (which rely on thousands of parts shuttled across the Mexican and Canadian borders) to groceries like fresh produce and meat. “Tariffs… will raise prices, and higher prices mean less demand,” explains Jason Miller, a supply-chain expert at Michigan State University. When American families pay more for the same products, they effectively pay the price of Trump’s trade war. Even business advocates across the border emphasize this point: “Tariffs are a tax on the American people,” warned the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, noting US consumers and manufacturers will face rising costs and disrupted supply chains. With household budgets already strained by inflation, these tariff-induced price hikes are the last thing Americans need.

It’s telling that even Warren Buffett – hardly a political bomb-thrower – lambasted Trump’s tariff strategy. The billionaire investor cautioned in a recent interview that tariffs are “an act of war, to some degree”. Buffett’s point is that historically, aggressive tariffs provoke retaliation and enmity, much like military conflicts do. In effect, Trump has declared economic war on our neighbors. As Buffett notes, tariffs become a tax burden on your people. Americans will pay more for goods, US exporters will lose foreign markets, and jobs will be lost on both sides of the border – all self-inflicted damage from Trump’s policy.

Geopolitical Consequences

The geopolitical fallout of Trump’s tariffs may be even more dangerous than the economic harm. By framing trade as a national security issue and demonizing Mexico and Canada, Trump is laying groundwork for a much more confrontational stance toward our neighbors. Observers fear he could use the inevitable retaliation from Ottawa and Mexico City as a pretext for military intervention or other extreme measures. In Mexico’s case, Trump’s team has already floated plans for cross-border armed action against drug cartels. Top Republicans began treating cartel violence as terrorism, with Trump’s administration labeling several Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations in February. National security experts note this FTO designation is likely a stepping stone to using US military force – greasing the legal skids for strikes in Mexico under the banner of counterterrorism. Essentially, Trump is inching toward treating Mexico like an enemy combat zone, not a partner nation. This raises the specter of unilateral US raids or bombings on Mexican soil, a move that would shatter bilateral relations and violate international law (a point not lost on Mexico, which has vowed to “defend its sovereignty” against any US incursion).

With Canada, the risk is different but still alarming. Trump’s rhetoric suggests an expansionist mindset more befitting the 19th century than today. Foreign policy analysts have criticized Trump for viewing international relations through a 1800s-style lens of territorial ambition. His repeated references to absorbing Canada – calling the border an “artificial line” and musing about annexation – feed a narrative of American imperial nostalgia. No US president in modern memory has talked so casually about redrawing North America’s map. This kind of talk is not just offensive to Canadians; it undermines the trust and alliance that our countries have built over generations. It also emboldens hawks in Trump’s circle who see US “manifest destiny” as unfinished business. If Canada resists Trump’s trade dictates (as it is doing via retaliation), one worries Trump could double down on his 51st-state fantasy and attempt to bully Canada into submission by other means. At minimum, his words have injected unprecedented strain into the US–Canada relationship, handing fodder to anti-American voices in Canada and making cooperation on fundamental security issues (like NORAD defense or Arctic strategy) more difficult. The tariffs thus have broader strategic consequences: they sow distrust among allies and make the US look like a capricious aggressor, eroding American leadership and credibility on the world stage, of which, under Trump, is bankrupt.

Historical Context

Trump’s tariff crusade against Mexico and Canada is also wildly inconsistent with recent history and our trade agreements. For over 30 years, the United States, Canada, and Mexico enjoyed virtually tariff-free commerce under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

These pacts bound the continent together, eliminating most duties and creating integrated industries (autos, agriculture, energy, and more) that span all three countries. Ironically, Trump himself touted the USMCA deal (signed by him in 2020) as a signature achievement of his first term. Yet now he is undermining his own agreement by claiming America subsidizes Canada to between 100-200 billion depending on the day and what’s in his diaper (it’s a $50 trade surplus because the US uses so much oil/gas and remember, dick head signed it). Prime Minister Trudeau noted that Trump’s new tariffs “violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement” that he signed. Mexico and Canada negotiated in good faith for the USMCA, only to have Trump ignore it when convenient. This reversal calls into question whether the US will honor its international commitments. Why would any country strike a deal with Washington if a president might nullify it on a whim?

Since World War II, the US has championed a rules-based trading system and respected allies’ sovereignty. The idea of using tariffs as a bludgeon to force territorial or policy concessions is utterly at odds with post-war American values. Past presidents chose diplomacy and multilateral frameworks to resolve disputes with neighbors, not economic punishment or threats of invasion. By contrast, Trump’s approach has more in common with the age of annexations and trade wars that often led to real wars. It is no coincidence that his tariffs have prompted talk of Canada becoming America’s 51st state and military strikes in Mexico – once-unthinkable notions that Trump has irresponsibly mainstreamed for his friend, Putin.

Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are a grave mistake. They inflict direct harm on American citizens – raising prices, killing jobs, and risking recession – all in pursuit of dubious political goals and could spark dangerous escalation, even conflict, under the false banner of “national security.” They betray the principles of cooperation and the rule of law that have guided North America for decades and they amount to an act of war. America’s strength has always flowed from its alliances and Trump is burning all of them while forging new ones with dictators and Pariah states. The same day Trump chose to punish Canada and Mexico, he announced he was loosening sanctions on Russia.

Suck on that when you wonder if Trump intends to remain aligned with ANY former USA ally or ANY democratic country.

Trump’s tariff tantrum undermines all three. The American people will pay the price economically, and our nation will be worse off strategically. Instead of a “great” new era, Trump’s trade war on our neighbors promises only pain at home and instability in our hemisphere. The evidence is clear – it’s time to call out these tariffs for what they are: a pretext to war. And Canada needs to get familiar with that idea ASAP.