LEAFS HUB: The Real MVP

Feb 10, 2018
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By: Ben Shelley

Auston Matthews. Mitch Marner. Morgan Rielly. William Nylander.

When you think of the core of the Toronto Maple Leafs, these are usually the first names that come to mind— and rightfully so. These players, among others, have been pioneers of the Leafs bursting out of obscurity. But a name that’s by no means forgotten, but often isn’t the first to come to mind, is Frederik Andersen.

If you ask any Leafs fan how they feel about Andersen, they’re probably going to acknowledge that this is the most stability Toronto has had in net over the last decade. But you don’t see a ton of Andersen jerseys when you go to a game, and he can sometimes be a bit of an afterthought. Not necessarily underappreciated, but just not considered a superstar.

But what’s proved more and more clear this season is that what was, in June 2016, a bit of a gamble to sign Andersen for five years at $25 million, has turned out better than anyone could have expected. Now there’s legitimate talk of Andersen within Vezina range, and this is seriously uncharted territory for a Leafs goaltender in recent history. To breakdown Andersen’s season, he’s been nothing short of incredible.

Over the past two seasons, Andersen has started 112 games, good enough for second, only behind Cam Talbot’s 115. Andersen has faced 35 shots or more 21 different times this season and still holds a 26-15-4 record. In fact, he’s faced 42 shots or more seven different times this season— his record in those seven games is 5-0-2. He’s tied for the most starts in the league at 46 and his .922 save percentage tied for fifth in the league, amongst goalies who have played at least 30 games.

Take a look at these five games:

Opponent Shots Saves/Shots Save % Result
NSH- Feb. 7 NSH 46-32 TOR 44-46 .957 SO Win
STL- Jan. 16 STL 42-31 TOR 40-42 .952 OT Loss
CGY- Dec. 6 CGY 48-29 TOR 47-48 .979 SO Win
NJD- Nov. 16 NJD 42-25 TOR 42-42 1.000 OT Win
MIN- Nov. 8 MIN 37-19 TOR 35-37 .946 Win

In each of these games, there was at least an 11 shot differential against the Leafs, and Toronto picked up at least a point in all five. It’s also nine points which Toronto has no business having. These aren’t even to mention the games where Toronto had narrowly lost when Andersen was the sole reason the game was within reach. It’s pretty incredible. But he’s not the only one stealing games.

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Curtis McElhinney, who everyone seems so eager to push out of the backup position, has been huge for the Leafs in his nine starts. He hasn’t gotten a lot of time, but when he has, often he’s been a game changer. Take a look at three of his starts below.

Opponent Shots Saves/Shots Save % Result
DAL- Jan. 25 DAL 40-29 TOR 39-40 .975 Win
EDM- Dec. 10 EDM 41-23 TOR 41-41 1.000 Win
BOS- Nov. 11 BOS 39-25 TOR 38-39 .974 Win

These are three games that the Leafs were lucky to pick up points in. Of course, Curtis McElhinney isn’t going to be a starter and doesn’t have a future with the team past next year at the latest. Sure his career save percentage is only .907. But he’s playing well right now, and at $850,000 per year, he’s extremely cheap.

When looking at McElhinney’s play, it’s essential to evaluate the present. He’s riding a .932 save percentage this season and has two shutouts in his nine starts, and since coming to Toronto, his save percentage is .921 across 24 games. When Andersen went down against Anaheim earlier this week, McElhinney, minus a soft goal, was extremely solid as well.

I understand why people are itching to see Garrett Sparks and Calvin Pickard get their chance. They’re both younger and could be part of the future of the team. But why would the team rush out McElhinney when he’s playing like this?

Realistically, Toronto’s goaltending has been a significant reason as to why they’re sitting comfortably in a playoff spot right now. The defense core is undoubtedly better than last year’s with the addition of Hainsey and Dermott, but that doesn’t change that the Leafs are consistently giving up ridiculous shot totals. The team is 3rd in the Atlantic Division, but are tied for the third most shots against per game across the entire league.

Mitch Marner, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak are all on pace for a pretty big drop in points per game this season and though Toronto has seemed to find some offense as of late, the Leafs can’t get by on their scoring alone like many of us suspected at the beginning of the year. Now, it’s quite the opposite. If the Atlantic was a little bit stronger and Toronto’s goaltending was a little bit weaker, this could be a different season for the Leafs. That’s not to undermine the season so far for players like Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly who have both been outstanding— there’s still a lot of good happening in Toronto. But when we talk about who has been most valuable to the team this year, the answer probably lands in the crease.

 

Read Ben Kelly on Twitter, and at LEAFSHUB.COM

Contributing Writers

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