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We’ve got another divisional matchup on our hands heading into Thursday Night Football. Kicking off Week 4 are two teams that have not gotten off to great starts.

The New York Giants, who got off to a brutal start to the season, are now in the win column after beating Cleveland convincingly on the road. The Dallas Cowboys on the other hand have lost their last 2 home games, after going 16-0 at home before Week 2.

It’s extremely difficult to try and pinpoint which version of each team you’re going to get, week in, week out. Looking at these two NFC East teams, you would think that the Cowboys should easily take care of the Giants, but is it really that easy? Dallas’ defense has looked horrible the last two weeks, they’re looking older and slower and not in sync offensively.

It almost feels as if the Cowboy’s quiet offseason has doomed them afterall. The fact of the matter is that it’s Super Bowl or bust for Dallas and it doesn;t seem like Dak has the pieces around him to get this team past the first round. At this point, the playoffs could be in serious question for this squad.

What’s especially confusing is when Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is asked about the team’s struggles in the playoffs. The book on Dallas is overachieving during the regular season and not executing come January. Jones’ response to that is,

‘Let’s trade some challenges during the season for doing well in the playoffs.”

This is all too familiar to fans of say maybe, the Toronto Blue Jays? Taking a roster that can’t get it done in the playoffs and running it back again with making no changes to improve in the offseason is not a recipe for success. It’s even worse to lose players that were holding things together and replace them with lesser players, and still expect to perform better.

That’s the Dallas Cowboys this season, in a nutshell. Even though the New York Giants are an opponent that you absolutely must beat if you’re the Cowboys, it’s not a given, especially the way Dallas has been playing. So let’s break down what feels right about this NFC East showdown, and it’s definitely not the spread.

The Play

Over 44 points (-125)

Going into the Sunday slate for Week 3, the Cowboys were favoured at -6.5 points looking ahead to Thursday’s game against the Giants. After the Cowboys lost to the Ravens Sunday and the Giants beat the Brown, the spread dropped to -4.5. This has the making of being a back and forth affair, but this is a must win for the visiting Cowboys.

If Dallas loses this game, there will be serious repercussions and things will not get much easier as the season progresses. Schedule wise, out of 32 teams, the Cowboy’s have the 12th toughest across the league. Needless to say, this is a must win for Dallas, but with a lot of movement on the line, the spread can’t be trusted.

The Giants however, have what it takes to put points on the board. Say what you will about Daniel Jones, but he’s led the Giants to 6 touchdowns in 2 games. It’s a shame they lost a game in Week 2 where they scored 3 touchdowns and still lost to a Commanders team that put up 0 touchdowns and 7 field goals.

When it comes to the Cowboys, the main issue isn’t the offense, it’s their defense, especially the run defense, which we’ll get to below. After their Week 1 33-19 win against the Browns, they’ve dropped the next two games while still putting up 19 and 25 respectively. Combined, 44 points should be easily attainable between these two teams that need a win, badly.

Devin SIngletary Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Dallas’ run defense has been without a doubt, the worst in the league. This line feels awfully low with how the Cowboys’ over-glorified defense has been performing so far.

Singletary is also no slouch as the Giants RB1. His stock rose considerably last year as he overtook the Texans RB1 position and once Saquon Barkley’s departure from New york came to fruition, they needed to fill that void. Devin SIngletary has without question stepped up as he’s rushed for 95 and 65 in the last two weeks, with a pair of touchdowns.

Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+130)

We wanted to roll with a Singletary TD with how awful the Cowboys’ defense has been, but Nabers has been just too hot. The rookie is one of the few bright spots with the Giants so far as he’s proven to be Daniel Jones’ go-to target. 

Despite a bad Week 1 loss, the LSU product has still managed over 12 targets a game to go with 271 receiving yards over 3 games and 3 touchdowns, including 2 in last week’s win over the Browns. It’s very clear who Jones’ go-to target is down the field and in the red zone, so why not take a chance on Nabers to find the endzone again Thursday night?